Frontiers

 

(Maxwell Zeff – TechCrunch – 16 October 2024) Are today’s AI models truly remembering, thinking, planning, and reasoning, just like a human brain would? Some AI labs would have you believe they are, but according to Meta’s chief AI scientist Yann LeCun, the answer is no. He thinks we could get there in a decade or so, however, by pursuing a new method called a “world model.”. Earlier this year, OpenAI released a new feature it calls “memory” that allows ChatGPT to “remember” your conversations. The startup’s latest generation of models, o1, displays the word “thinking” while generating an output, and OpenAI says the same models are capable of “complex reasoning.”. That all sounds like we’re pretty close to AGI. However, during a recent talk at the Hudson Forum, LeCun undercut AI optimists, such as xAI founder Elon Musk and Google DeepMind co-founder Shane Legg, who suggest human-level AI is just around the corner. – Meta’s AI chief says world models are key to ‘human-level AI’ — but it might be 10 years out | TechCrunch

 

Governance

 

(Samuel Woolley – Centre for International Governance Innovation – 17 October 2024) With all of the hype about artificial intelligence (AI) in recent years, it can be difficult to distinguish genuine uses of the technology from wishful marketing. This uncertainty is heightened in the political space, which thrives on its own ecology of spin. While campaigns and candidates might claim they’re making use of state-of-the-art technologies for analysis and outreach to voters, the truth is less clear — and often deliberately obscured. In order to understand exactly how generative AI and large language models are actually being deployed during the ongoing elections in the United States, my research team recently interviewed a group of 20 political technology vendors, campaign consultants and other relevant experts. – To Overcome AI-Enabled Propaganda, Support Communities Already Fighting It – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)

(World Economic Forum – AMGFC, Dubai 2024 – 17 October 2024) By 2027, businesses predict that almost half (44%) of workers’ core skills will be disrupted. From AI tutors to lifelong learning schemes, what approaches and opportunities hold the greatest potential to close gaps and prepare people for tomorrow’s economy? – Skills in the Age of AI > Annual Meeting of the Global Future Councils | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

(Ho, C. – The Jamestown Foundation – 15 October 2024) The Beijing Algorithm Registration Center—also known as the Model Share Center—has opened as the PRC’s first physical algorithm registration center, marking a significant step in regulating AI development. The center is co-established by the local government, Zhongguancun Development Group, and Huawei through the Ascend AI Computing Center. Supported by the massive computing power of the Western Beijing AI Valley AI computing center, the algorithm registration center collaborates with the Beijing Municipal Intellectual Property Office and Beijing International Data Exchange, which was founded by a state-owned enterprise, to enforce the PRC’s latest data property measures. This initiative symbolizes the PRC’s growing state intervention in AI, with algorithm registration becoming a key regulatory tool, and reflects the PRC’s broader strategy to create a distinct data property rights system. – PRC Launches First Algorithm Registration Center, Strengthening AI and Data Regulation – Jamestown

(Molly Kinder, Xavier de Souza Briggs, Mark Muro, Sifan Liu – Brookings – 10 October 2024) Existing generative AI technology already has the potential to significantly disrupt a wide range of jobs. We find that more than 30% of all workers could see at least 50% of their occupation’s tasks disrupted by generative AI. Unlike previous automation technologies that primarily affected routine, blue collar work, generative AI is likely to disrupt a different array of “cognitive” and “nonroutine” tasks, especially in middle- to higher-paid professions. Despite the high stakes for workers, we are not prepared for the potential risks and opportunities that generative AI is poised to bring. The report emphasizes the importance of developing strategies to proactively shape AI’s impact on work and workers. This includes fostering worker engagement in AI design and implementation, enhancing worker voice through unions or other means, and developing public policies that ensure workers benefit from AI while mitigating harms such as job loss and inequality. – Generative AI, the American worker, and the future of work (brookings.edu)

Geostrategies

(IISS – October 2024) With substantial government and foreign investment in its technology sector, the United Arab Emirates is poised to become a major player in the global market for artificial intelligence, data infrastructure and cloud services. Yet it also faces risks in these areas due to great-power rivalries and competition from ambitious and capable neighbours. – The UAE’s technology ambitions (iiss.org)

(Alex O’Neill, Amanda Wick – Lawfare – 16 October 2024) The geopolitical tumult of the past several years has brought renewed attention to the national security threats illicit finance and sanctions evasion represent. Russia has sustained the brutal invasion of Ukraine despite an unprecedented campaign to choke off its war machine, in significant part because of the Kremlin’s ability to erect alternative trade channels and procure banned goods. Washington has wielded novel export controls in a bid to restrict China’s access to advanced chips, but a complex network of illicit traders has blunted their impact. From Venezuela to the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” to North Korea, rogue actors have survived punishing international sanctions, and many continue to pose unacceptable threats to U.S. security. Those who find themselves in the crosshairs of U.S. economic statecraft have sought workarounds to continue buying and selling arms, oil, dual-use electronics, and other illicit goods with national security implications. Increasingly, sanctions evaders have been drawn to virtual payment technologies that operate outside the traditional U.S.-dominated financial system. – Sounding the Alarm on Digitally Enabled Sanctions Evasion | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)

(Trisha Ray – Observer Research Foundation – 11 October 2024) India’s growing strategic importance as a balance to China in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as convergence between New Delhi and Washington DC about Beijing’s aggressive stance on emerging technology, have resulted in warming relations between the United States (US) and India. Indeed, in recent years, there has been a spur of cooperative agreements between the two sides on domains such as defence technology, 5G, and semiconductors. This brief highlights the evolution of this partnership in the past decade, and asks: Can the two overcome current points of friction—immigration and anti-competitive practices by US tech giants, for example—especially as the US undergoes a change in leadership? – India-U.S. Technology Ties: Charting an Ambitious Course for the Future (orfonline.org)

Security

(Etay Maor – SecurityWeek – 16 October 2024) Artificial intelligence is on everyone’s mind right now, especially the cybersecurity industry. In a constant game of whack-a-mole, both defenders and attackers are harnessing AI to tip the balance of power in their respective favor. Before we can understand how defenders and attackers leverage AI, we need to acknowledge the three most common types of AI models currently in circulation. – AI Models in Cybersecurity: From Misuse to Abuse – SecurityWeek

(Alessandro Mascellino – Infosecurity Magazine – 16 October 2024) A sharp rise in hackers’ confidence in AI technologies has been revealed in the Inside the Mind of a Hacker 2024 report, published today by Bugcrowd. The study, which gathered insights from 1300 ethical hackers and security researchers, shows that 71% now believe AI increases the value of hacking, compared to just 21% in 2023. This significant shift highlights the growing role of AI within the hacking community, both as a tool and as a potential risk. Generative AI tools have also seen increased use among hackers, with 77% of respondents reporting adoption, up from 64% in 2023. – Ethical Hackers Embrace AI Tools Amid Rising Cyber Threats – Infosecurity Magazine (infosecurity-magazine.com)

(James Coker – Infosecurity Magazine – 15 October 2024) Nation-state threat actors have ramped up cooperation with cybercriminals in the past year to advance their political and military goals, according to Microsoft’s Digital Defense Report 2024. The use of cybercriminals by nation-states has served a variety of purposes, including to collect intelligence, conduct operations for financial gain, and to make use of tools favored by these financially-motivated groups, such as infostealers and command and control frameworks. – Microsoft: Nation-States Team Up with Cybercriminals for Attacks – Infosecurity Magazine (infosecurity-magazine.com) – to download the report: Microsoft Digital Defense Report 2024

 

(Elizabeth Montalbano – Dark Reading – 15 October 2024) Cyber-threat actors have ramped up their targeting of the 2024 US elections with a flood of malicious activity expected to peak over the next month, aimed at causing disruption to voters and the election process and requiring increased vigilance on the part of stakeholders. Specifically, attackers have bolstered election-related threat activity since the beginning of the year with an increase in the sale of phishing kits targeting US voters and campaign donors; the registration of more than 1,000 domains aimed at exploiting election-related content for malicious purposes; and increased ransomware activity targeting government entities, according to research from FortiGuard Labsreleased today. – Flood of Election-Related Cyber Activity Unleashed (darkreading.com)

(Beth Maundrill – Infosecurity Magazine – 15 October 2024) Despite NIST’s recent publication of post-quantum encryption standards, many organizations have not begun preparing for the post-quantum threat, according to a new report by the Entrust Cybersecurity Institute. In August, NIST published its first three finalized post-quantum encryption standards, outlining usage and implementation guidelines for organizations entering a new era of quantum cryptography. – Most Organizations Unprepared for Post-Quantum Threat – Infosecurity Magazine (infosecurity-magazine.com) – to download the report – 2024 PKI and Post-Quantum Trends Study | Entrust

Defense, Intelligence, and War

(Akshat Upadhyay – Observer Research Foundation – 18 October 2024) Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) are being increasingly used by the military for training, operations, and even medicine. VR allows soldiers to experience realistic combat scenarios without the risk of actual harm, while AR enhances their perception of the battlefield by overlaying vital information onto their view. The Indian Armed Forces are also increasingly utilising VR and AR technologies for training, wargaming, and enhancing the capabilities of their equipment. However, challenges such as the potential adverse effects of VR on young soldiers and the high installation costs need to be addressed before these technologies can be fully integrated into the Indian military. – Virtual Reality, Augmented Reality, and Warfare (orfonline.org)

(Chatham House – 17 October 2024) The discovery of a new radar system on China’s Triton Island military base shows that Beijing is rapidly developing its intelligence capacities in contested waters, write John Pollock and Damien Symon. – How Beijing is closing surveillance gaps in the South China Sea | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

(Wesley Wark – Centre for International Governance Innovation – 3 October 2024) The first drone wars in history. The current conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are vying for the title. Both wars have seen devastating initial use of drones, great proliferation and experimentation, and an extraordinary technological pace of change. When new weapons of war come along, they are usually attended with confident predictions about their impact on the future. Twenty years after the introduction of the machine gun (the “Gatling gun”) during the American Civil War, its inventor, Dr. R. J. Gatling, wrote: “It requires no gift of prophecy to predict that machine guns are destined to play an important part in future wars. They hold the same relation to other arms that the railway bears to the stage-coach, the reaper to the sickle, the sewing machine to the needle.” – Drone Technology Is Transforming Warfare in Real Time – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)