Prateek Tripathi is a Research Assistant Centre For Security Strategy and Technology at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), one of the most known Think Tanks in India. He was given a prize for outstanding physics achievement at the University of Sussex.
How is quantum computing developing globally?
Quantum computing (QC) has been gaining a lot of traction both in terms of investment and research, particularly over the past few years. In the US, the private sector has largely been responsible for the country’s dominance. For instance, IBM announced its “Condor” processor in 2023, the first in the world to possess over 1,000 qubits. On the other hand, government efforts are responsible for most of the progress in China, with the Chinese Academy of Sciences announcing both the “Zuchongzhi” and the “Jiuzhang 3.0” in 2023, making it the only country to achieve significant breakthroughs in both superconducting and photon qubit technologies. Canada released the world’s first commercially available quantum computer called the “D-Wave One” back in 2011 which was based on quantum annealing. Japan recently announced its third quantum computer, which consists of a 64-qubit chip developed by RIKEN. The EU is also investing massively into QC through initiatives such as the European Quantum Technologies Flagship, under which it plans to build a 100-qubit quantum processor by 2026. Despite the rapid progress in the field, it will likely take a while before a fully functional quantum computer is developed due to several practical limitations. To get an estimate, one must consider IBM’s roadmap, as it plans to build its first large-scale quantum computer by 2033. At present, QC is much more interesting from a research perspective than a commercial one.
In terms of opportunities and risks, what are the emerging scenarios?
QC is still an emerging field; its practical applications must be improved, making it less commercially viable. The only exception is quantum annealing, which is commercially available and is being applied to solve optimization problems in areas like transportation, manufacturing, and storage. However, its applicability remains quite limited at the moment. Consequently, it is in R&D where most of the opportunities are. There is a global talent shortage in the quantum technology sector, particularly in QC. While this is an obstacle the field must overcome, it also provides an opportunity for talent recruitment and a growing avenue for employment. Most of the opportunities will likely come in the future since QC has many applications across many fields, including healthcare, finance, manufacturing, agriculture, and even climate change. Due to the exponential boost in computational speed that quantum computers may offer, they can run algorithms that classical computers are incapable of, even in principle. This will enable us to perform calculations in quantum physics and chemistry, which were impossible to implement on classical computers, enhancing our fundamental understanding of nature. However, it will likely take some time before full-fledged or moderately powerful quantum computers become a reality. On the other hand, the threat is much more immediate when it comes to risks. Quantum computers can run encryption-breaking algorithms that completely overpower almost all our current encryption protocols, putting the cybersecurity landscape under immense threat. Though it will take time for quantum computers to become powerful enough to run these algorithms, we currently face the threat of “store now, decrypt later”, wherein malicious actors can hack into databases, obtain valuable information, and store them to be decrypted years later. The field of Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) aims to address this issue by creating quantum-safe encryption protocols. Still, it will be a while before these can be universally integrated across all platforms due to several practical constraints.
The governance of innovative technologies requires excellent complexity. What is the role of national and regional legislation, and how should collaboration between the public sector and Big Tech be realized?
Regarding emerging and innovative technologies like QC, the primary issue is that they transcend national boundaries since borders do not restrict technology. If one country passes a specific regulation, another may not, which makes regulation and governance particularly challenging for individual nations. So, while national legislation is a good first step for these technologies, it must be backed by regional and, possibly, global legislation. Collaboration between the public sector and Big Tech regarding emerging technologies has been a contentious issue lately, with AI serving as a case in point. The passing of the EU AI Act, for instance, was problematic since several member states objected that overregulation could stifle innovation in the private sector and make it less competitive compared to countries that were free of such regulation, such as the US. Therefore, what is required is a delicate balance between regulation and innovation or between the public sector and Big Tech. Applications that pose a high national or regional security risk must be assigned to the public sector. In contrast, low and medium-stake applications can be left to Big Tech. Since technologies like AI and QC constantly evolve, unforeseen circumstances and clashes between the public and private sectors are meant to arise. This requires flexibility in regulation, making assigning informed regulators an issue of primary importance. This can be done by establishing new regulatory bodies or incorporating existing ones. It is impractical to undertake any legislation without clearly defining who will be responsible for implementing its provisions. This remains a matter that must be adequately addressed in current regulatory frameworks.